Trading ideas and portfolio tracking. Part III.
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Hi everyone! Once again we issue our weekly journal. This time there are no new recommendations. The market is really volatile right now, and I want to see better open P&L before moving on. So, this week, we will only cover our current positions and discuss what may happen next.
I remind you that we have a short Japanese yen position and a long Corn position.
Yen already had some open P&L during last week's report. This week we saw some aggressive movements against our position. We even saw a negative P&L on Friday morning. However, during the US session, the price fell sharply. I won't provide any reasons behind the move because I don't know them... In fact, any economic news and activities can affect the market in both ways. So let's just stick to the facts - the price dropped and we, once again, saw the profit of about 700 dollars. For now, we stick to our strategy and change nothing.
Corn, on the other hand, was negative last week but turned positive on this one. The price jumped from 321 to almost 331 on Thursday and went back to 325 on Friday. The position went positive but still extremely far away from our take profit. As I said previously, that is a rather slow market. So grab some popcorn (a lot of it, in fact) and enjoy the show.
Stocks were much more volatile this week. Some wild moves... and wild events. First of all, let's discuss Hertz.
Hertz filed for bankruptcy. I said that it's a rather interesting move because, previously, some of the core insiders bought the stock heavily. However, on May 29 in the morning (which is late evening in the US), I read that Carl Icahn, the key shareholder, sold his stake! That was a bit of a surprise. Especially given the curious facts:
- When I recommended the stock, I said that Carl Icahn wouldn't let the business down. Eventually, I was wrong.
- I bought 3000 HTZ at 0.79 dollars right on May 27.
At first, I thought that it's a rather shitty situation even though after I bought the stock, it went to 1.6 dollars. But then I noted one curious thing. On the day Carl sold his stake, net buyings exceeded 300 million shares. There are two possible explanations. Either the public bought HTZ a lot, and all the smart players sold it. If it's the case, then the position should be terminated. The public is rarely right, and being a part of it, I can say it's true :)
On the other hand, buying 300 million stocks isn't something that can be done easily by the public. So, there might be someone who wants to take over the HTZ. And this may be a good thing. Unfortunately, there are no ways to find it out. And even if there were, that would be an insider trading that would lead to some adverse consequences.
What to do with the position? I will just wait and monitor the situation. As I said before, I'm a risk-seeking person, and I'm okay with losing the whole position.
Our next position is UA. I bought 800 stocks at 7.7 dollars, and the price closed at 8.03. It was much higher during the week, but the Thursday and Friday retracements pushed it to the current level. Overall, I think the execution was lovely, and I like the price. Besides, being the Rock fan, I saw that UA would launch a new line with the Rock Project, so I expect things to get going.
Finally, we have COTY... which was a mess for me. Because of all these activities with HTZ, I completely forgot about COTY... I should have bought it right after the market open at about 4, but I remembered it only on Wednesday and bought it at 4.62 dollars per stock. The worst execution that I could have made... Hopefully, I bought only 200 shares, and, honestly speaking, I wouldn't have bought it if it hadn't been recommended in the previous weekly journal. I would skip it or wait for a better price (which we saw on Friday). Anyway, what's done is done. Now the only thing to do is wait.
Position and Results
Next time, I will also add equity curve to the position section.
Next week, I will show you new tool and way on finding long-term trades in futures!